Data note
How far did graded Pokémon cards fall in 2021–23?
Data as of · 27,827 graded sales, January 2021 to September 2026 · Published
−55% to −64%graded sales index, Jul 2021 to late 2023
Graded Pokémon cards lost more than half their value. Our index of grade 9 and 10 cards sold on eBay.com fell 55% (quarterly average) to 64% (monthly) from its July 2021 peak to late 2023, and only got back to that peak in late 2025 or early 2026: about four years. A fixed group of PSA 10 cards fell 26–30%, while raw cards ended the period about flat.
The numbers
| Measure | Fall | Window | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales index, grade 9 and 10, monthly | −64% | Jul 2021 → Nov 2023 | 27,827 sales |
| Sales index, grade 9 and 10, quarterly average | −55% | Q3 2021 → Q4 2023 | 27,827 sales |
| Sales index, PSA only, monthly / quarterly | −64% / −56% | Jul 2021 → late 2023 | 18,820 sales |
| EverySlab Pokémon Card Index — Graded, in euros | −26% | 2021–22 peak → 2023 low | Sales-weighted monthly prices |
| Same grade 9 cards, PriceCharting prices | −41% | Jul 2021 → Oct 2023 | 227 cards |
| Same PSA 10 cards, PriceCharting prices | −26% to −30% | Jul 2021 → Oct 2023 | 105 cards |
| Same raw cards, PriceCharting prices | about flat | Jul 2021 → Oct 2023 | 169 cards |
| Time below the July 2021 peak, sales index | 51–55 months | Recovered Q4 2025 (quarterly), Feb 2026 (monthly) | 27,827 sales |
What this means for a collector
- If 2021–23 repeats, a collection of popular graded cards could lose about half its value and need about four years to get back.
- Single cards swing more than the market: the typical grade 9 card fell 55% from its peak, and one in ten fell more than 76%.
- PSA 10s fell less than grade 9s, but 37% of PSA 10 cards were still below their old peak in September 2026.
- Cards did not protect against the 2022 stock and crypto falls: graded sales fell 26% during the 2022 stock bear market, when the S&P 500 fell 19%, and 36% during the crypto winter.
- The card bust started before stocks peaked and bottomed about a year after them, so cards and stocks did not move in lockstep.
The path from boom to bust and back
Graded sales index, quarterly average
Index, January 2021 = 100
Cards in the 2022 stock and crypto falls
The two episodes were dated from public market history before we looked at card prices.
| Episode | Graded sales index | PSA only | S&P 500 | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock bear market, Jan → Oct 2022 | −26.6% | −25.9% | −18.8% | −55.7% |
| Crypto winter, Nov 2021 → Dec 2022 | −36.0% | −37.4% | −16.6% | −73.0% |
Single cards fell further than the market
Each card’s largest fall from a previous high, at any time from 2021 to September 2026, on PriceCharting prices smoothed over three months.
| Grade | Cards | Median fall | 1 in 10 fell more than | Still below peak, Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade 9 | 557 | −55% | −76% | 21% |
| PSA 10 | 924 | −41% | −70% | 37% |
| Raw | 143 | −43% | −64% | 5% |
Method and limits
How we measured it
- The sales index uses 27,827 eBay.com sales of English cards graded 9 or higher, from January 2021 to September 2026 (18,820 of them PSA). It compares each sale only with other sales of the same card at the same grade from the same grading company, so a month full of expensive cards does not look like a rise. Sales priced far from that comparison were dropped.
- As a check, we followed a fixed group of cards that had a fresh PriceCharting price in July 2021 to October 2023: 227 grade 9 cards, 105 PSA 10s and 169 raw cards.
- For single cards we took every English card with at least 36 monthly PriceCharting prices that were not carried forward and a first price of $30 or more, and measured its largest drawdown on a 3-month median price.
- Stock and crypto figures are the S&P 500 price index and Bitcoin in US dollars from Yahoo Finance, accessed 25 October 2026.
What it can’t tell you
- This is one boom and one bust. We are fairly sure graded cards fell by around half; the exact size of the fall is less certain.
- Prices are in US dollars from eBay.com. In euros the path differs a little because the exchange rate moved.
- The cards are the ones we track today, chosen partly for popularity. Cards that fell out of favour probably fell further, so these falls are, if anything, understated.
- Grade 9 PriceCharting prices mix grading companies. Raw prices mix conditions, and there are too few dated raw sales before 2025 to check them, so treat the raw numbers as rough.
- A single month of the sales index is uncertain by about ±8%. The rise in 2026 is large; its exact size will change as more sales come in.
Sources
- EverySlab analysis: graded sales indexIndex fitted to completed eBay.com sales of graded English cards, January 2021 to September 2026, with the stock and crypto episode comparison. Analysis of 25 October 2026.
- EverySlab analysis: single-card drawdownsLargest fall per card on monthly PriceCharting prices, and the fixed-group check from July 2021 to October 2023. Analysis of 25 October 2026.
- PriceChartingMonthly graded and ungraded price history per card.
- Yahoo FinanceS&P 500 (^GSPC) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) daily prices, accessed 25 October 2026.
- EverySlab Pokémon Card Index: methodologyHow the monthly index is calculated and why it differs from a sales index. Graded fall measured 26 October 2026.
- How EverySlab fair values workHow today’s card values are computed from the same sales data.
How to cite
Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with this credit:
EverySlab, 'How far did graded Pokémon cards fall in 2021–23?', 2026-10-25, https://everyslab.com/notes/graded-crash-2021-2023